Bitcoin faces critical test below $90K as institutional selling weighs on market sentiment - November 19, 2025

Market Overview

Bitcoin is experiencing one of its most challenging periods in recent months, with the cryptocurrency falling below the critical $90,000 level for the first time since early spring. The breakdown has triggered widespread fear across the market, with the Fear and Greed Index reaching extreme fear levels at 14 out of 100, marking the lowest reading since February 2025. This level historically coincides with significant market bottoms, suggesting potential capitulation behavior among investors.

The selling pressure has been intensified by persistent institutional selling, with Galaxy Digital reportedly dumping over 2,800 BTC worth approximately $135 million. This institutional distribution has occurred alongside record outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, with BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF shedding a record $463 million in what analysts describe as the worst week for crypto funds since February. The average Bitcoin ETF investor is now underwater as BTC trades below the $89.6K threshold.

Despite the bearish price action, Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable resilience by holding its market structure even under severe macro pressure. Analysts note that BTC is reacting more to market drops than pumps, a pattern typically seen near macro bottoms rather than cycle tops. This technical behavior, combined with accelerated whale purchasing activity despite the price decline, suggests underlying strength in the asset's long-term outlook.

The broader cryptocurrency market has experienced an intense sell-off with over $814 million in total liquidations across exchanges. Bitcoin briefly wiped out its entire 2025 gains after falling below $92,000, though recent data shows institutional players like Harvard adding approximately $350 million in Bitcoin exposure through IBIT, indicating continued institutional confidence despite short-term volatility.

Major Negative News

• Bitcoin Crashes Below $90K Critical Support: Bitcoin has fallen below the crucial $90,000 level, entering what analysts describe as "dangerous territory" and triggering widespread market fear as momentum weakens and buyers struggle to absorb aggressive sell pressure.

• Galaxy Digital Dumps $135M Worth of Bitcoin: Major institutional player Galaxy Digital has offloaded over 2,800 BTC to Coinbase Prime, adding significant selling pressure to an already fragile market structure and contributing to Bitcoin's accelerated decline.

• Record Bitcoin ETF Outflows Hit $463M: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF experienced record outflows of $463 million, part of $2 billion in total crypto ETP outflows marking the worst week since February, with the average Bitcoin ETF investor now underwater.

• Mt. Gox Moves $953M in Bitcoin: The defunct exchange moved 10,608 BTC worth $953 million after eight months of inactivity, sparking market worries about potential additional selling pressure from creditor repayments.

• Michael Saylor's Strategy Under Scrutiny: Analysts warn that Saylor's leveraged Bitcoin strategy may be "hurting Bitcoin price action" as his portfolio turns red, raising concerns about MicroStrategy's risk profile and its impact on BTC price dynamics.

• Crypto Winter Declaration: Market expert Mark Yusko declared that "Crypto Winter Is Here," outlining indicators pointing to a Bitcoin bear market and the forces shaping the challenging road ahead.

Major Positive News

• Bitcoin Shows Resilience Despite Market Pressure: Bitcoin continues to demonstrate strong resilience by holding its market structure despite negative correlation trends with traditional markets, with experts noting this pattern typically appears near macro bottoms rather than cycle tops.

• Institutional Adoption Accelerates: Major institutions continue embracing crypto despite Bitcoin's price slump, with significant developments including Harvard's $350 million Bitcoin purchase and growing Wall Street participation in crypto-backed lending.

• US Banks Authorized for Crypto Holdings: The OCC officially clarified that US national banks can hold cryptocurrencies on their balance sheets for specific purposes like network gas fees, marking a significant step toward institutional crypto integration.

• Kraken Raises $800M at $20B Valuation: Major crypto exchange Kraken successfully raised $800 million, including $200 million from Citadel Securities, ahead of a potential IPO, signaling strong institutional confidence in the crypto sector.

• El Salvador Continues Bitcoin Accumulation: Despite market volatility, El Salvador purchased an additional 1,090 BTC worth over $100 million, demonstrating continued sovereign-level confidence in Bitcoin as a strategic asset.

• Wall Street Analysts Predict 40% Rally: Despite short-term bearish outlook, Wall Street analysts are forecasting a significant 40% rally for Bitcoin, expecting it to reach new all-time highs before the end of 2025, while Bitcoin whales accelerate their purchasing activity.

Key Risk Factors

• Macro Economic Uncertainty: Tightening dollar liquidity and global economic pressures are driving capital away from risk assets including Bitcoin
• Institutional Selling Pressure: Large-scale selling by institutional players like Galaxy Digital is adding significant downward pressure on Bitcoin's price
• Regulatory Scrutiny: Increased regulatory attention including potential IRS tracking of foreign crypto holdings and probes into crypto-related activities
• Technical Breakdown: Bitcoin's loss of key support levels including the $90,000 threshold and weekly moving averages signals potential for further downside
• Market Sentiment: Extreme fear levels and widespread panic selling create conditions for accelerated liquidations and forced selling
• Mt. Gox Overhang: Large Bitcoin movements from defunct exchanges continue to create uncertainty about potential additional selling pressure

Conclusion and Outlook

The Bitcoin market finds itself at a critical inflection point, with the cryptocurrency testing the $90,000 support level amid the most challenging conditions seen in months. While the immediate price action appears dire, with extreme fear levels and significant institutional selling pressure, several underlying factors suggest this may represent a late-stage correction rather than the beginning of a prolonged bear market.

The combination of forced liquidations, institutional selling, and panic-driven exits may be creating the final stage of a broader market reset that historically precedes major cycle reversals. Notably, Bitcoin whales continue to accumulate during this downturn, while institutional adoption continues to accelerate despite short-term price volatility. The fact that 80% of key on-chain metrics are flashing red paradoxically suggests the market may be approaching a capitulation bottom.

Looking ahead, the sustainability of any recovery will depend on whether buyers can defend current support levels around $90,000 and the broader market's ability to absorb the ongoing selling pressure. Wall Street analysts maintain bullish long-term targets with expectations of new all-time highs before 2025 ends, while continued institutional developments including regulatory clarity and traditional finance integration provide fundamental support for Bitcoin's long-term value proposition.

The market appears to be in a classic shakeout phase where weak hands are being flushed out before stronger institutional capital potentially steps in. While short-term volatility is likely to persist, the underlying institutional adoption trends and regulatory developments suggest Bitcoin's long-term trajectory remains intact despite current challenges.

*Key Monitoring Points*: Watch for Bitcoin's ability to hold the $90,000 support level, institutional buying patterns during this dip, regulatory developments regarding crypto taxation and banking integration, and overall market sentiment indicators including the Fear and Greed Index for signs of capitulation bottom formation.

※ This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation. Investment decisions should be made at your own discretion and risk.

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